Polls and Pundits
I confess. I am a political junkie. Polls, pundits jabbering, primary election results, the 24/7 he said/she said: sign me up. Give me your tired, your poor.... while you're at it, your data, and, most importantly, the methodology behind your data, too.
After Iowa, Barack was annoited the winner; Huckabee was the surprise spoiler. Tonight, after New Hampshire, Clinton is declared the "surprise" winner (really? a surprise after pre-Iowa caucus polls?); McCain, the Comeback Kid.
Some perspective, news outlets. Please?
Let's look at the Election Map, folks. Iowa has 7 electoral votes; New Hampshire, 4. There are 538 votes from the College available, and it takes 270 to win the general election. In the Primary Season, it makes more sense to see what percentage of total votes available have been claimed. That percentage would be (drum roll, please): 2%.
Based on that 2%, I predict.... nothing. Yes, there is a school of thought that these early primaries can predict national trends, but all I keep hearing on the news are "surprise," "comeback," "wow, who would have pictured that?" It seems the tv news outlets are more interested in influencing events via the "story" than dispassionately reporting the news, real news, as it develops.
So, yeah, I'll keep watching, but with an eye on the real data and vote count. I'll continue to particpate myself in politics, committees, and advocacy for issues I care about. And I'll wait patiently to cast my vote here in Oregon for the candidate of my choice.
-- Dad
P.S. I'm sure someone will point out the difference between delegates to the Parties' conventions verses votes in a general election, but I think the Electoral College helps greatly in keeping things simple and in relative scale.
For those interested in a different scale, though, according to the DNC site, there will be ~ 5,000 delegates for the Democratic Convention in Denver. Total delegates from Iowa + New Hampshire is 57 + 30 = 87. Out of ~ 5,000 total delegates, that amounts to ~ 2% also. Interestingly, some of the delegates are not assigned to caucus or primary winner:
"Most (around four-fifths) of the delegates will be 'pledged' to candidates based on their state's voting in the primary, so the nominee could be known in advance. However, there are complicating factors, such as delegates that have not pledged their allegiance to a candidate, as well as rules governing how delegate votes are allocated when candidates drop out of the race. Once a candidate locks up a majority of the delegates, he or she can receive the party nomination." - DNC website
Makes the winner harder to call, particularly if the race remains close through Super Tuesday and the poorly named "Super Duper Tuesday."
-- Dad (again)
